Abstract

Objectives: To introduce a newly developed workforce forecasting model (the model) using historic annual practicing certificate (APC) data to forecast future supply of medical specialty workforce with age distribution for each specialty.

Methods: We tracked individual medical specialist APC data for the last 6 to 10 years to gather age or age-group, specialty specific exit rates, full time equivalent (FTE) per head count (HC) ratios, and entry/re-entry age distributions. These parameters were used with an in-house developed dynamic modelling algorithm to forecast future medical specialty workforce supply in New Zealand. The input parameters and the model has been gradually improved and validated through numerous discussions with medical colleges, and associations.

Results: The model calculated the age distribution of each specialty workforces over the next 10 years, and projected that many specialty workforces may have a lower ratio of specialists to corresponding population groups in 2026 compared to 2016

Conclusions: The model has opened a new way of using APC data for evidence-informed planning and policy development, and the outputs of the model have been used within the New Zealand health sector. The model is easily scalable and can be adapted for other workforces and used in regional workforce planning.